Underwriting Summary
Cap Rate Stress Test
Valuation impact of cap rate movement on a NOI-constant basis.
| Scenario | Cap Rate | Implied Value | Equity Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| −50bps | 6.90% | $4.7M | +7.2% |
| Base Base | 7.40% | $4.3M | 0.0% |
| +50bps | 7.90% | $4.1M | -6.3% |
| +100bps | 8.40% | $3.8M | -11.9% |
DSCR Rate Sensitivity
Coverage ratio under interest rate shock scenarios.
| Rate Scenario | DSCR | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Current Rate Current | 1.48x | Pass |
| +100bps | 1.34x | Pass |
| +200bps | 1.22x | Marginal |
Threshold: 1.25x (agency standard) · 1.0x (minimum acceptable)
Rent Comps
Comparable properties within the submarket. Market rent per unit/month.
| Address | Market Rent | Year Built | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2800 E Speedway Blvd | $985/mo | 2000 | 0.7 mi |
| 3500 E Broadway Blvd | $1,020/mo | 2008 | 0.4 mi |
| 4200 E 5th St | $940/mo | 1998 | 0.9 mi |
Sample comps generated for illustration. Live deals show actual market data from CoStar/Rentometer.
Risk Flags
- Tucson median household income growth trailing national average
- Small unit count (48) limits debt capital options — local bank only
- University of Arizona proximity creates seasonal occupancy patterns
Investment Rationale
Tucson at 69 is a yield story discounted for market depth. The 7.4% cap rate is the highest in this cohort, and the DSCR of 1.48x is exceptional — this deal cash flows with substantial coverage under a variety of stress scenarios. At 65% LTV and $4.35M, the equity basis is modest and the downside is limited.
The discount reflects Tucson market liquidity. This is not a market that attracts REIT or institutional capital, which means the exit pool is limited to regional operators, local investors, and 1031 buyers. Typical cap rate spread between Phoenix and Tucson stabilized product runs 80–100bps, which is consistent with this pricing. The concern is that the Tucson buyer pool is thin enough to extend hold periods if a market correction occurs.
For the right buyer — a local Arizona operator or a high-yield-seeking private investor — this is a well-performing asset with predictable cash flow. The 48-unit footprint means limited property management overhead, and the Broadway Blvd corridor benefits from solid retail and transit access. Underwriting a 7% terminal cap rate on a 5-year hold, this pencils to a 13.8% levered IRR, which is attractive given the low basis and high coverage.
This is a sample analysis. Live deal rationale is generated by the Clearfield agent at deal ingestion using real financial data.
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