Underwriting Summary
Cap Rate Stress Test
Valuation impact of cap rate movement on a NOI-constant basis.
| Scenario | Cap Rate | Implied Value | Equity Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| −50bps | 6.00% | $10.6M | +8.3% |
| Base Base | 6.50% | $9.8M | 0.0% |
| +50bps | 7.00% | $9.1M | -7.1% |
| +100bps | 7.50% | $8.5M | -13.3% |
DSCR Rate Sensitivity
Coverage ratio under interest rate shock scenarios.
| Rate Scenario | DSCR | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Current Rate Current | 1.31x | Pass |
| +100bps | 1.17x | Marginal |
| +200bps | 1.06x | Marginal |
Threshold: 1.25x (agency standard) · 1.0x (minimum acceptable)
Rent Comps
Comparable properties within the submarket. Market rent per unit/month.
| Address | Market Rent | Year Built | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7800 Merrill Rd | $1,180/mo | 2006 | 1 mi |
| 9400 Regency Square Blvd | $1,220/mo | 2013 | 0.8 mi |
| 10200 Atlantic Blvd | $1,155/mo | 2002 | 1.5 mi |
Sample comps generated for illustration. Live deals show actual market data from CoStar/Rentometer.
Risk Flags
- Insurance cost headwinds in Florida — estimate 15–20% YoY increase
- Submarket concentrated near single employer (Naval Station Mayport)
- Deferred exterior maintenance visible in listing photos
Investment Rationale
Jacksonville at 71 scores in the acceptable range, penalized primarily for Florida insurance exposure and submarket concentration. The 6.5% cap rate and 1.31x DSCR are healthy fundamentals, and the 112-unit count clears the institutional ownership threshold. At $87,500/door, this is priced below replacement cost in a market that has seen meaningful in-migration.
The insurance line is the key underwriting variable. Florida multifamily insurance costs rose 18% on average in 2023 and are expected to continue rising as carriers re-price coastal and near-coastal exposure. This property on Arlington Expy is not in a SFHA flood zone, but the proximity to the St. Johns River means any institutional buyer will stress-test at +20–25% insurance costs, which would reduce NOI by approximately $38,000 and push the effective cap rate down to 6.1%.
At a 6.1% stressed cap rate with a DSCR of 1.22x, the deal remains passable but not exceptional. The 71 score reflects a property that will attract regional operators and 1031 buyers rather than institutional capital. A disciplined buyer who can contain insurance through scale or a captive program can squeeze additional yield; absent that, this is a market-rate hold with modest upside.
This is a sample analysis. Live deal rationale is generated by the Clearfield agent at deal ingestion using real financial data.
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